@Article{RezendeCarrRodrNeve:2018:DeFuSc,
author = "Rezende, Fernanda Silva de and Carriello, Felix and Rodriguez,
Daniel Andr{\'e}s and Neves, Otto Marques dos Santos",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)} and {Universidade Federal
Fluminense (UFF)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)}",
title = "Spatial and temporal changes in the land use and cover of the
Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil: development of
future scenarios",
journal = "Revista Brasileira de Geografia F{\'{\i}}sica",
year = "2018",
volume = "11",
number = "5",
pages = "1732--1747",
keywords = "Forestry, Silviculture, Dynamic Spatial Modeling, Atlantic Forest,
Silvicultura, Modelagem Espacial Din{\^a}mica, Mata
Atl{\^a}ntica.",
abstract = "The Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil, is marked
by great transformations. The Brazilian economic cycles changed
this region and transformed it into a great mosaic of pastures,
forest fragments, and urban areas. Temporal studies on land use
and cover have given information on these changes and evaluated
their impacts. The conversion of extensive areas of the Atlantic
Forest into eucalyptus crops is noticeable; this monoculture
developed greatly and is expanding steadily in this valley. This
land-use conversion has consequences, such as forest
fragmentation, and losses in biodiversity, and water and soil
quality. Developing future scenarios (2010 to 2050) that simulate
changes in land use and cover is essential for an efficient and
sustainable public management. Thus, the objective of the present
study was to develop future scenarios while considering different
social, economic, and environmental issues, based on analyses of
the dynamics of forestry expansion in the Para{\'{\i}}ba Valley
in S{\~a}o Paulo, Brazil. The scenarios developed were classified
as Trend, maintaining the same change patterns of the observed
period (2000 to 2005); Optimistic, decreasing conversion rates of
natural vegetation into forestry and pasture areas; and Pessimist,
increasing deforestation rates and increasing eucalyptus and
pasture areas. Future scenarios for the period of 2010 to 2050
were developed in the Dinamica Ego software, and it proved to be
effective, presenting trends and predispositions of changes in
land use. These results can be used for environmental planning
focused on sustainability, better management of natural resources,
and development of economic activities. RESUMO: O Vale do
Para{\'{\i}}ba paulista {\'e} marcado por grandes
transforma{\c{c}}{\~o}es vinculadas aos ciclos econ{\^o}micos
brasileiros que mudaram a regi{\~a}o transformando-a em um grande
mosaico de pastos, fragmentos florestais e {\'a}rea urbana.
Estudos temporais de uso e cobertura permitem observar essas
mudan{\c{c}}as e avaliar os impactos gerados por elas. {\'E}
not{\'o}ria a substitui{\c{c}}{\~a}o de extensas {\'a}reas de
Mata Atl{\^a}ntica para o monocultivo de eucaliptos que possui
alto desenvolvimento e constante expans{\~a}o no Vale. Tal
convers{\~a}o de uso traz consequ{\^e}ncias como a
fragmenta{\c{c}}{\~a}o florestal, perda de biodiversidade, da
qualidade das {\'a}guas e do solo. A possibilidade de desenvolver
cen{\'a}rios de simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o de mudan{\c{c}}as de uso e
cobertura da terra {\'e} fundamental para uma gest{\~a}o
p{\'u}blica eficiente e sustent{\'a}vel. Visando essas
quest{\~o}es o presente estudo busca projetar cen{\'a}rios
futuros levando em considera{\c{c}}{\~a}o diferentes
quest{\~o}es sociais, econ{\^o}micas e ambientais, a partir de
an{\'a}lises sobre a din{\^a}mica de expans{\~a}o da
silvicultura no Vale do Para{\'{\i}}ba paulista. Os
cen{\'a}rios criados podem ser classificados como Tendencial que
mant{\'e}m os mesmos padr{\~o}es de mudan{\c{c}}as do
per{\'{\i}}odo observado (2000-2005); Otimista que diminui as
taxas de convers{\~a}o para silvicultura e pastagem, aumentando
as {\'a}reas vegetadas; e Pessimista que alavanca as taxas de
desmatamento a partir do crescimento dos cultivos de eucaliptos e
pastagem. O desenvolvimento de cen{\'a}rios futuros de 2010 a
2050 no DinamicaEgo se mostrou eficaz, apresentando
tend{\^e}ncias e pr{\'e}-disposi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de
transi{\c{c}}{\~o}es de uso do solo sendo poss{\'{\i}}vel a
utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos resultados no planejamento ambiental
visando {\`a} sustentabilidade e melhor gest{\~a}o dos recursos
naturais e desenvolvimento de atividades econ{\^o}micas.",
issn = "1984-2295",
language = "en",
targetfile = "rezende_spatial.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}